Even though Microsoft has dropped a plan to wait nearly two years after Windows 7's launch to issue a first service pack, it won't deliver the update before the fourth quarter of this year, a site that has accurately predicted past Windows timetables said today.

Microsoft would be smart to reconsider and delay a service pack as long as possible, one analyst countered.

TechARP.com, a Malaysian Web site that has nailed previous service pack schedules for both Windows XP and Vista, said unnamed sources had originally pegged a 22-month development schedule for Windows 7 Service Pack 1 (SP1). But Microsoft has since changed its mind, reportedly to address an unknown number of "serious" performance bugs.

"The earliest Microsoft can realistically release Service Pack 1 for Windows 7 is in the last quarter of 2010," the site said.

Full story: Computerworld